Author Topic: Ontario Election Prediction  (Read 773 times)

Online Jason Wallwork

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Ontario Election Prediction
« on: May 11, 2018, 01:24:18 am »
So Buster, when are we starting the pool for predicting the Ontario election?

I think we should do one one lasting a week now and another one just a few days before the election. But since it's been your idea, I'll leave it to you.
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Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2018, 11:35:00 am »
I guess Buster is mad at me since he's not responding :-)
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Offline ssfc72

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2018, 09:15:32 pm »
So for the Lindsay area, my prediction is that the PC party will win the riding, again. :-)

Of course given the history for this riding, I don't think I am going out on the limb with this prediction, hardly at all! ;-)

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Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2018, 09:32:39 pm »
So for the Lindsay area, my prediction is that the PC party will win the riding, again. :-)
Yeah, I think that's a fair bet. Sadly, the PCs appear to be ahead in Central Ontario so Peterborough might go that way, too. Also Eastern Ontario and the 905. But the NDP is ahead in Toronto, SW Ontario and the North.
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Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2018, 06:51:11 pm »
Not going to try to predict seat totals yet but I predict a PC majority with the NDP forming a strong Official Opposition. The polls in the last week show likely even support between the NDP and the PCs. Unfortunately, for the NDP, this means a PC win and likely still a majority.

The NDP support isn't as efficient as the PC support which means the NDP is far ahead in certain regions but behind quite a bit in others which contributes to the overall support around 37% while the PC support is nearly even across most ridings including in the 905/401 area, Eastern and Central Ontario which will be enough to win most of these ridings. Vote splits in the 416 region will further help the PCs win seats.

Also, the PCs are always excellent in getting their people out to vote. The same can't be said for NDP voters, some of which are lukewarm NDP supporters and may not turn out to vote at all.

I hope I'm wrong.
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Offline fox

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2018, 07:38:35 am »
The latest CBC poll tracker supports your prediction, Jason. It has the NDP slightly ahead in popular vote, but losing on the projected seat count and having only a 13% chance of winning the most seats. However, it is unclear whether the NDP has peaked or will continue to pull more voters in from the other parties. It may depend somewhat on what happens in tonight's debate.
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Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2018, 01:59:00 pm »
It has to pull in support from the PCs. More support from the Liberals won't help since they're already pretty much bottomed out and there's few seats to be had there.
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William Park

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2018, 02:50:18 pm »
It has to pull in support from the PCs. More support from the Liberals won't help since they're already pretty much bottomed out and there's few seats to be had there.

Heck, I'll vote for NDP, if they can get their acts together on Health Care, in particular, Geriatrics.  My Mom is in hospital, and I'm doing "night shift" here.  I see Liberal's eHealth in action every fucking day.

Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2018, 10:54:18 pm »
Sorry to hear about your mom, William. I hope it's nothing too serious.
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Offline Paul Kneeland

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2018, 06:26:03 pm »
Tough Call


Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2018, 01:59:58 am »
Easy for this non-drinker :D
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Offline Paul Kneeland

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2018, 05:54:33 am »
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Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2018, 08:19:39 pm »
My prediction - PC Majority:


PC: 76
NDP: 45
LIB: 2
GRN: 1 (Guelph)

Kathleen Wynne's suggestion that people vote Liberal to stop the PCs or NDP from a majority won't save seats, it will probably just pull enough votes away from the NDP in some ridings to help elect more PCs. Oh, my other prediction, Kathleen Wynne will lose her own seat.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2018, 08:26:19 pm by Jason Wallwork »
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Offline ssfc72

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2018, 03:43:57 am »
My wife and I went to the advance poll in Lindsay Saturday, to vote.
We each had our voter card that was mailed to us and a piece of ID, as specified on the voter card.

The girl at the front desk of the poll station handed each of us a sheet, at least 18" long with a huge amount of information, on both sides of the page, to be filled in.
The girl said the advance polling had ended and that these sheets had to be filled in. WTF!

My wife and I both left, without voting.  I have never had to fill out this huge amount of information for any previous election voting.
At previous election voting, it was a simple routine, to show your voter card and ID, they then scratched your name of their voting list and they gave you a ballot to vote.
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Online Jason Wallwork

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Re: Ontario Election Prediction
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2018, 05:55:19 am »
Elections Ontario says advance polls closed on Friday at 8 pm and you said you tried to vote on Saturday so she is correct.

My guess is that because of that she were asking you each to fill out a form a for special ballot which is the only way you can vote outside of advance polls or election day. I did this for my wife. I only had to fill out one side though. The other side was likely French and much of it doesn't need to be filled out unless your home address is different from your mailing address. It didn't take me long to fill out, just name, address, sign a declaration that you won't vote anywhere else and date it. Maybe she was giving you the wrong form, one that also required you to register to vote as well as for getting a special ballot?

I don't believe this is new. It was like this in past elections if you missed the advance polls and weren't voting on election day.

You can still go to your regular poll on Election day and vote then if you prefer or go to the Returning Office and vote there before election day.
« Last Edit: June 03, 2018, 06:00:43 am by Jason Wallwork »
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